Daily Ag Direction 02/10/25
Good Morning!
Markets quiet to start Monday as we see some more correction in the wheat complex and corn and soybeans make small moves higher. CFTC reports showed funds lessening their Chicago wheat net short position by 20k contracts and KC wheat by 6k contracts. Open interest also declined. Export estimates out of Russia reduced by 0.5 NNT to 43.0 MMT for 2025. Production was lowered by 2 MMT from 84 to 82 MMT. South American forecasts show more rainfall to drought affected areas leading to weakness in corn and soybeans to end last week. There was a flash sale of corn to Mexico totaling 365k metric tons. Beans seeing resistance at the 200-day ma along with a less favorable fundamental situation with rains in South America. Thoughts of a return to the Trump trade deal with China outlined in his first administration. However, Brazilian beans are at such a discount to US, it is unlikely that this deal would go through without some angst. Weekly cattle slaughter was lower than expected at 584k head with further reductions expected this week. Big corrections in the cattle market are worrisome as fundamentals have not justified big sell-offs. Producers are net short in fats and feeders posting their largest short position in five years. Couple that with funds shorting 7k live cattle contracts last week, there was fuel to push the market lower.
Mar KC Wheat -7.0 @ $5.97
July 25 KC Wheat -5.6 @ $6.17
Mar Corn +2.4 @ $4.90
Dec 25 Corn +2.6 @ $4.69
Mar Beans -1.0 @ $10.49
Nov 25 Beans -1.4 @ $10.56
Mar Feeders +1.100 @ $265.925
Feb Live 0.525 @ $201.300
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
