Daily Ag Direction 02/24/25
Good Morning!
Wheat exploring lower sectors on the chart this morning. A good amount of short covering drove prices higher and a rubber band effect seems to be taking place. COT report on Friday showed that wheat shorts were covering their position at a faster-than-expected pace. The producer also did a good job of rewarding that rally which also contributed to the pull-back. We are exploring chart territory below the previous bull-channel so it is time for this market to make a stand. A big close lower here could set the stage for more sideways trading until fundamentals become known in the spring. Producers with grain that needs marketing in the short term need to watch this market closely. Many participants are still bullish, however, and see this merely as a correction. Corn is also under pressure as the 20-day mover fell. The COT report showed corn adding 33k contracts to their long position with a net long near 350k contracts. Weakness in corn is bad for wheat but the demand situation appears to support this market in the face of near term moves lower. The general feeling in beans is that we are oversold. Weakness in corn is bad for beans as well. We could see support for beans show up if corn expected acreage comes in at the 96-97 mil/acres range but that will be a waiting game. As always, there is the looming tariff situations that could throw a wrench in plans with unforeseen consequences. The Cattle on Feed report Friday showed a 1% decrease compared to a year ago at 11.7 million head. Placements were up 2% and marketings were 1% higher.
Mar KC Wheat -13.0 @ $5.96
July 25 KC Wheat -12.0 @ $6.22
Mar Corn -7.0 @ $4.84
Dec 25 Corn -4.5 @ $4.71
Mar Beans -4 @ $10.36
Nov 25 Beans -2.4 @ $10.58
Mar Feeders +1.000 @ $268.550
Feb Live 0.225 @ $198.050
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
