Daily Ag Direction 03/03/25
Good Morning!
Tariff fears weigh heavily on the market to start the week. Wheat was up in the overnights but is under pressure to start the day session. Canadian wheat/oat imports into the US would be impacted by tariffs along with canola oil. Chances for moisture in the southern US wheat belt could be seen as bearish but the first round was underwhelming. We will see what happens tonight. Russia looks to receive some moisture in the Volga region but southern Russia remains dry. Corn feeling pain for 7 straight sessions in the shadow of tariff implementation tomorrow. Mexico has been a very important destination for US corn so retaliatory tariffs are a big concern here. The COT report showed funds selling off 24.9k contracts with traders estimating another 80k contracts sold late week from the long position. This brings the net long to +255k contracts. Funds are net short in beans at -3k contracts, meal is short -77k contracts and bean oil is long +33k contracts. Brazilian weather looks adequate for beans but looks drier for 2nd crop corn. Flooding concerns in Argy will make it to markets eventually but China is influencing prices at the moment and it is hard to get a clear picture of the effects. Risk off attitude in cattle to end last week as well. Weekly slaughter totals underwhelmed and macro fears contributed to the selloff. Cash cattle also felt pressure but feeders look better from a chart perspective than live cattle. Cutout values were up slightly and if they can gain traction this week it may spillover support to cash cattle and futures this week.
May KC Wheat -5.6 @ $5.67
July 25 KC Wheat -5.6 @ $5.81
May Corn -9.6 @ $4.60
Dec 25 Corn -4.2 @ $4.51
May Beans -10.2 @ $10.11
Nov 25 Beans -12.2 @ $10.17
Mar Feeders -2.100 @ $272.875
Apr Live -1.875 @ $190.775
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
