Daily Ag Direction 03/24/25
Good Morning!
Markets are starting to talk tariff deadlines on April 2, again, as an excuse for the exodus of money from grains. We have a stocks and plantings report on March 31st to look forward to which will keep eyes on grain futures. Some rain chances in the US southern plains and the Black Sea region fuel the risk off attitude this morning. IKAR increased the Russian new crop wheat estimate by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt. Russian production worries begin slightly after ours in the June/July timeframe so while the early conditions matter, we will have to wait and see about harvest estimates. Funds continue to short wheat and remain happy with that trade for now. The COT report showed funds selling off 28k contracts in corn for a long position at 96k contracts. Locally corn planters are rolling with optimism and soil moisture for now. Estimates of the Brazilian corn crop remain unchanged. Watch corn to continue trading around the 100-day ma. Tariff talks will dominate soybean trade over the next few weeks. Biofuel policy and trade with China will be the two major factors that the market wants clarification on. Argentina is about to begin harvest and the March 31st planting report will give direction on US intentions.
May KC Wheat -12.6 @ $5.76
July 25 KC Wheat -12.0 @ $5.92
May Corn -2.6 @ $4.62
Dec 25 Corn -1.4 @ $4.50
May Beans -4.2 @ $10.06
Nov 25 Beans -4.2 @ $10.04
Apr Feeders +1.125@ $286.100
Apr Live +0.550 @ $207.500
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
