Daily Ag Direction 8/28/25
Good Morning!
Bad news plagues grain markets as wheat continues to set new contract lows. Cash markets continue to soften as concerns about supply are nonexistent. Tarriff news on India continues to add uncertainty in a market where enough things are hanging by a thread. The U.S. is a residual supplier of wheat to the world and is an active participant in exports. This is a direct correlation to our low cash prices. Issues with Russian wheat quality could keep us in the export game but pockets of French wheat are okay so there could be some pressure from Europe last half of the year. Corn continues its grind with nothing new to spark markets. Bean basis continues to weaken with real production concerns undiscoverable. We are in a slog now that will require an unknown to break us out. Good planting conditions across the wheat belt will prevent new crop risk premiums and the only question traders have is how many acres will go to feed/grazeout. Trump mentioned that India tariffs could be dropped by 25% if they quit buying Russian oil, a clear geo-political play that the U.S. farmer cannot afford. As commodity prices fall there is thought that equity investors could view commodities as a safe hedge. It would take a lot of money flow to make a difference but it has happened before and is a thread of hope to watch for. Milo basis values continue to weaken with no signs of stopping. A massive crop with little demand is a bad marketing scenario to navigate. As we move into September we are running out of fundamental news that could change the direction of these markets and the reality of the situation seems more set in stone.
Sept KC Wheat -3.2 @ $4.82
July 26 KC Wheat -5.6 @ $5.54
Sept Corn -1.4 @ $3.81
Dec 25 Corn -1.0 @ $4.05
Sept Beans -3.6 @ $10.24
Nov 25 Beans -3.4 @ $10.44
Aug Feeders +0.550 @ $366.000
June Live -0.150 @ $243.100
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
