Daily Ag Direction 9/4/2025
Good Morning!
Markets have shifted back into a downward trend, led by weakness in the soy complex, which is quickly erasing all post-WASDE gains. USDA crop scouts are currently spread across the country collecting field samples for the September WASDE report. This will mark the first yield estimate of the year based on both in-field data and farmer surveys. Historically, the September USDA yield projections have shown a track record of significant adjustments from the August estimates, particularly in corn.
The loss of roughly 1.2 million Mexican feeder cattle in U.S. feedlots due to the screwworm outbreak is reducing domestic feed demand, as those animals are now being finished in Mexico. This shift decreases U.S. feed and residual use but simultaneously increases Mexican demand for U.S. corn, since the cattle still require feed across the border. In effect, part of the demand is transferring from the domestic feed/residual category to the export category. As a result, USDA may need to rebalance its corn outlook by lowering feed use and raising exports, with the impact on ending stocks hinging on how fully stronger shipments offset weaker domestic consumption.
Reminder: We are now accepting enrollments for the JSA Select Program on wheat. This managed bushel program allows participating producers to have their bushels actively managed by JSA professionals, who handle futures pricing on your behalf. The signup deadline is October 24th. For more details, please contact your local co-op or your CEA Risk Management Advisor.
Dec KC Wheat is -5 @ $5.0525
July 26 Wheat is -4.5 @ $5.5175
Dec Corn is up ¾ penny @ $4.1875
Nov Soybeans are -6 @ $10.255
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
Mike Hellman
580-532-5126
