Daily Ag Direction 4/29/24
Good Morning!
Good rains for some across the southern plains but a miss for others. Southeast Kansas received some much needed moisture along with most of Eastern Oklahoma and parts of Northwestern Oklahoma. In a wheat market that is being driven by fundamentals, it will be interesting to see how the market digests this information. While dryness in the US is certainly concerning, there are other world concerns that will hold at least as much significance as markets try to determine appropriate values. This market needs to slow down from a technical standpoint but it isn’t wise to stand in front of a weather driven market. There has been a lot of money flow and short covering and a close above the 200-day MA at $6.60 on the KWN24 could trigger another rally. Trade will continue to be concerned about Russia and Ukraine growing conditions along with the EU.
Corn reduced its short position last week at the COT report reported 41,000 contracts were bought back resulting in a net short of 240k contracts. Of historical note, the Funds have not maintained a net short position through the entirety of the planting and growing season so there is a lot of work to do if that trend continues. Many producers have a price goal of $5.00 cash corn so there is a lot of price movement needed before excitement starts brewing in the HTA space.
Soybeans had a great start to the morning trading as high as $11.84 on the Nov. before retreating. Without much weather concern yet, beans will likely waffle. Fundamentals on the demand side are good enough to hold values but funds remain short 140,000 contracts in beans and 50,000 contracts apiece in meal and oil.
May KC Wheat -1 @ $6.45
July KC Wheat -2 @ $6.52
May Corn -4.5 @ $4.36
Dec Corn -3.5 @ $4.70
May Beans +1 @ $11.61
Nov Beans +1 @ $11.76
Aug Feeders -0.175 @ $248.525
June Live -$0.65 @ $177.925
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
