Daily Ag Direction 7/1/24
Good Morning!
Welcome to July! Last Friday we got the June 1 Stocks and Acreage Report. Nothing in that report fueled bulls as we saw markets break and remain under pressure. USDA found 91.5 million acres of corn vs 90.4 trade estimate. Soybeans came in at 83.1 ma vs 86.8 trade est. and winter wheat was 33.8 ma vs 34.2 trade est. Both acreage and stocks were negative for corn with the 4.993 billion bu. totaling 120 million bu. more than the trade average. These were seen as massive divergences from expectations and the markets responded in kind. The reality of price expectations are starting to settle in. If these numbers are correct price has the motivation to continue to slide. Most market advisors suggest focusing closely on any July rallies and determining a goal for utilizing those opportunities. Technically Soybeans had a bullish report but the weight of negative corn news spilled over. Fortunately, wheat and soybeans are seeing recovery today as the whiplash is rebounding from the initial wreck. I’m also watching on-farm stocks of corn as Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota posted big numbers. Iowa saw a 150 million bu. increase over last year and Minnesota is at 95 million bu. above last year. Illinois also posted a large increase at 185 million bu. There may be some opportunity in this market if flooding concerns ever manifest themselves. There always seem to be opportunities that we don’t expect, but if producers are confident in raising a corn crop and haven’t marketed any bushels, it is time to get serious about establishing what your floor price/stop loss price should be.
Sept ’24 KC Wheat +8.2 @ $5.95
July ’25 KC Wheat +8.2 @ $6.31
Sept Corn -3.2 @ $4.05
Dec Corn -2.2 @ $4.19
Aug Beans +9.6 @ $11.43
Nov Beans +18.5 @ $11.12
Sept Feeders -1.625 @ $258.025
Aug Live -1.050 @ $183.825
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
